With speculation rife over the last few weeks and months, the scheduled tests at Jerez and Bahrain did little to help clarify the situation. However, with two free practice sessions under their belts, now is probably the best time to take a look through the grid and see just where everyone roughly is as we head into qualifying.
And where to start? Well - perhaps where we left off - the 2013 championship finishing order.
A Troubled Start, But Showing Promise.
Red Bull, having enjoyed almost effortless success in recent years, but their luck has seemingly run out. The rule changes are almost like a torpedo aimed directly at their side, and the new power train, in combination with Adrian Newey's traditional tight packaging, has added up to one hell of a problem.
One notable thing is the lack of nose-mounted cameras on the car. This has caused a degree of controversy as it is a complete disregard for the spirit of the regulations, but yet follows them by letter. The saga continues, so listen out for word on this over the weekend.
The Bookie's Favourite.
Mercedes seem to be going from strength to strength; the problems they have encountered seem to be little more than an inconvenience when compared to their rivals. From the word go, they were able to put in good, solid lap times, as well as going the distance. There were of course a few issues for Hamilton in Jerez and other mechanical gremlins, but there's not been a point so far where they seem to be in real peril.
With an impressive reliability statistic of 777 miles (average) between breakdowns, the Mercedes power unit is clearly a notable way ahead of the Renault units, not to mention that whichever session they have been in, they have been hanging around the top 4 with comfort.
Rosberg and Hamilton have been upbeat but typically dismissive of their pace of late, making the usual throwaway remarks about how it's only the start of the season and so on, but they really are in with a great shout of taking a win from pole tomorrow, and possibly even a one-two.
Always The Bridesmaid...
Ferrari have made great steps forward during the winter, designing an overall solid car which isn't too aesthetically displeasing, but yet somehow they're not quite where they want to be.
Having had a relatively good testing experience in recent weeks, it looked as though they'd managed to make a car that could possibly propel their world champion driver line-up to victory, however no one was really prepared for what the Mercedes-powered cars were bringing to the table.
So yet again, Ferrari looks to be on the back foot, but not by too much - their best laps from Jerez and Bahrain put them in 5th place each overall, which, while not bad, is frustratingly short of where they were hoping for. This was further proved correct with Alonso's 5th place in qualifying, although we were denied the opportunity for this to be cemented after Raikkonen's early departure in Q2.
On the plus side for them, the car does seem to be reasonably well-balanced and quite reliable, with an average of 561 miles between failures, making for a good baseline from which to progress. We might see a resurgence from them a few races in.
Falling From Grace.
It's not been a good winter for Lotus.
The car, whilst innovative, doesn't seem to be working well for them, and looks pretty awful too. The loss of their star driver Raikkonen to Ferrari was also a blow.
They were unable to participate in the first test, which really put them at a disadvantage when you consider that they are running a Renault power unit, which has really suffered in recent weeks, but with no one moreso than rivals Red Bull. However, their average of 161 miles between failures is a worrying statistic.
The loss of Eric Boullier will of course be a hit for the team, and their less-than-consistent driver lineup of the recently reformed Romain Grosjean, and the typically short-fused Pastor Maldonado means that it could well be a disappointing opening for the season. With the drivers complaining of misfiring engines, amongst other things, the cars only managed to propel them to 20th and 21st, a far cry from the top six that they had been used to in years gone by. We may see them begin to return to form by the time the F1 circus hits Europe, but for now, I wouldn't expect much by way of miracles from them.
Quietly Confident.
Having come off the back of one of the team's worst seasons in the team's history, Mclaren have gone right back to the drawing board and scrapped some of their previous innovations (ie. pull-rod suspension) in favour of a more traditional, proven layout.
They also have their (so far trademark) 'butterfly rear wishbone' suspension setup, which has really yet to be seen as a must-have development, with some teams arguing that it is a movable aerodynamic device, which of course contravenes the rules.
Running the Mercedes power train for the last time since they paired up some 19 years ago, the Woking outfit are in good shape to make up for the bad form which dogged them for the large part of 2013, before they move over to Honda engines next year.
With an interesting blend of old and new behind the wheel, the surprisingly level-headed and naturally-able Magnussen is so far proving to have been a good choice, while the ever-faithful Jenson Button is there to provide technical knowledge to help guide the team to victory.
So far, they have been 'there or there abouts' in terms of lap times, while their reliability record is also looking strong, despite some teething issues in early testing which saw them stuck in the garage all day.
Overall, after a qualifying session that saw Magnussen wrestle the MP4-29 to 4th place, and Button lagging behind somewhat in 11th (10th after penalties are applied), I see the guys at Mclaren at the least filling the second or third row in an average race, with possible steps forward made every race, if not when the circus reaches Europe; they are ones to watch this weekend as it's not clear just how quick the Mclaren is on longer runs, as well as just how kind that machine is on its tyres.
Still Midfield, But Getting Closer.
The rule changes have benefited and hampered teams up and down the grid.
One team that seems to have remained largely unaffected is Force India, which is about where it was last year in terms of pace.
A few issues in testing saw their 'miles per failure' average fall down to 621 miles, but being a Mercedes power unit, this is still an impressive number to have under your belts before heading to a race meeting, and certainly enough to get .
Their overall best was in Bahrain, where they clocked a time worthy of 5th place on the time sheets. This is about where they were last year - somewhere towards the bottom of the top 10, behind the 'big three/four', whoever they may be this year.
Their new and talented driver line-up made of slowly rising star Nico Hulkenberg, and the quickly rising but slowly falling Sergio Perez, the team has potential to achieve some good results, however Perez has been erratic and somewhat over-exuberant in the past, so watch this space.
Their qualifying efforts saw Hulkenberg continue to impress with 7th, while Perez seemed to struggle, making it as far as 16th. It's hard to tell exactly where they are based on this.
Business As Usual
Sauber have had a fairly uneventful test experience, with only a handful of issues hampering what was otherwise a fairly solid effort from the Swiss outfit. With Sauber being one of the consistent mid-field teams, it looks as though that once again, in 2014, this is going to be the case.
With problems early on seeing them only make it as far up as 13th in the final classifications at Jerez, their overall best of 9th went some way to making up for this.
Their driver line-up consisting of an interesting blend of Germany's occasionally short-fused Adrian Sutil and Mexico's latest F1 export Esteban Gutierrez, the potential for good results are there, but this relies on their ability to keep a level head and bring the cars home without incident.
Sauber's traditional development path has been a slow start to the season, building steadily but exponentially to some good form towards the latter half of the year. Perhaps not a team to watch for the first few races, but certainly not one to rule out for some good results.
Rubbing Shoulders With The Big Guys
Toro Rosso have always been in the shadow of their big brother, Red Bull Racing. However with the regulation mix-up, this could be about to change.
I'm not suggesting that they will be in the mix for some victories, but given the qualifying session in Melbourne, where STR veteran Vergne and Russian hot shot Daniil Kvyat qualified 6th and 8th respectively, it does look as though they've built a pretty solid chassis, having both outqualified reigning champion Vettel.
Their only Achilles heel seems to be that Renault power train. As has been typical with all the Renault-powered machines, they've not had the best of luck in regards to reliability, however Toro Rosso seem to be on top of their problems moreso than their big brother, however their limited reliability of an average 380.75 miles per breakdown is certainly lagging behind some of the others.
Having looked at their testing record, it looks as though they've qualified roughly where we expected to see them, perhaps even slightly better, although it is early days and it does depend on the development of others as to whether these results could be regularly repeated.
The Darkest Of Horses
Williams have had the pleasure of enduring their worst seasons in their history in recent years, with the glory days of the late 80's and 90's seemingly far behind them.
However having signed to receive Mercedes power units, a major team restructuring, employing a recently-liberated Brazilian and retaining the impressive Finn Valtteri Bottas, things look set to change.
To top off what could be a recipe for success, the car is draped in the iconic colours of Martini. What could possibly go wrong?
So far, very little has; some early testing teething issues reared their ugly heads, as is usual, but having ironed them out, the chassis actually looks to be a very well-sorted unit. As it has been supplemented with the so-far comparatively infallible Mercedes power train, Williams could be set to see one of the most popular renaissances for a team in recent years.
Their testing record has been impressive; an average of 611.6 miles between failures is in line with what we have come to expect from the Mercedes engine, but their best time at Jerez achieving 2nd in the final classification, and their best classification in Bahrain being 1st thanks to a brilliant lap from Felipe Massa, it came somewhat as an anti-climax when the pair of them only managed 9th (Massa) and 10th (Bottas), with Bottas having to drop 5 places after a gearbox change.
Dare I predict that they will rise through the race and potentially challenge for positions flirting with the podium. Watch this space.
Some Steps Forward.
Marussia are making progress. Despite low testing mileage, the car looks to be reasonably well-balanced, but lacking some crucial downforce, which is setting them back.
They've retained their previous driver lineup of the quick Frenchman Jules Bianchi and the persistent Brit Max Chilton, which I think, in a year of many changes, is a good move for the team.
They're carrying Ferrari's Tipo power train, as opposed to their main rivals Caterham, who went with the popular Renault unit, which has of course been problematic to say the least.
With reliability playing a potentially crucial role in at least the first half of the year, it would be reasonable to believe that Marussia have the upper hand against Caterham having opted for the Ferrari unit, but when mileage is taken into account, the Marussia is statistically twice as likely to break down.
Looking at their testing times, their best was 14th and 16th at Jerez and Bahrain respectively, and when compared to their qualifying times of 17th and 18th, it looks as though this area of the grid is a reasonable expectation of their performance at least for the first few races while teams such as Lotus get on top of their issues.
Progress has been made for the British outfit, but not as much as they'd like.
There May Be Trouble Ahead...
For the team that finished last in the constructor's standings last year, Caterham have a mountain to climb. Things seemed to be on the up during testing, with the innovative but otherwise ugly machine recording over 2,000 test miles using the seemingly flawed Renault power unit. However it wasn't entirely plain sailing; the French workhorse suffered a total of five failures, bringing their testing average to 414.2 miles per failure.
Despite a figure that seems to be a long way off the Mercedes customers, they still seemed to have the best reliability of all the Renault-engined machines. This may come as a crumb of comfort for the team; we will have to see whether this translates onto the track come race day.
Caterham have opted to use the services of the experienced and feisty Kamui Kobayashi, a man who will happily take on all comers should the opportunity present itself. Alongside him is Swedish newcomer Marcus Ericsson, a fresh graduate from GP2. The decision to take up Ericsson seems to be almost purely financial, as statistically he has been less than impressive in previous years.
Friday was where things began to unravel. The team failed to record any laps through both practice sessions due to a fuel system failure for Kobayashi and an electrical issue for Ericsson. For a team on the edge of extinction, this may well be a sign of things to come...
